Reference Class Forecasting Courses

Learn the most accurate forecasting method that exists: Reference Class Forecasting (RCF). Learn how to de-risk project cost, schedule, and benefits. Apply Nobel Prize-winning theory. Create your own reference class forecasts.

  • 1. RCF Foundations

    Independent learning
    See RCF's impact on real projects
    Access whenever, wherever
    Gain RCF competency
    First step to certification
    4 weeks, 10 hours
  • 2. RCF Essentials

    Includes lessons from RCF Foundations
    Learn theory and application of RCF
    Explore more RCF case studies
    Gain RCF proficiency
    Learn from the world leaders in RCF
    10 weeks, 30 hours (includes 10 hours from RCF Foundations)
  • 3. Certified RCF Practitioner

    Includes RCF Essentials course
    Execute an RCF from scratch
    Work 1-1 with an OGP expert
    Gain advanced theory and practice
    Earn the elite RCF Certification
    10 weeks, 70 hours (includes 30 hours from RCF Essentials)

The OGP Academy RCF courses build on the most sought-after curriculum we teach at the University of Oxford. We adapted this with practitioners in mind. The basics are the same. But you will get more practical details, more cases, more examples, more time, and more guidance on how to master RCF in practice.

Select your self-paced course or  contact us for a cohort-based course for your organization.

Start RCF Foundations.

Provides a full month of access to learn at your own pace for $700.

*After completing the RCF Essentials course, you will be eligible for the certification course. If you book the Certified RCF Practitioner course now (which includes the Essentials course) you save, compared with booking the two courses separately. We recommend this, if you know you want certification.

World-Class Expertise.

Your course is led by the leading scholars in the field.

Course Leader

Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg

Professor Bent Flyvbjerg is the Executive Chairman of Oxford Global Projects. He has 30+ years of experience as an advisor to government and business, including the US, UK, and Chinese governments, Fortune 500 companies, and top consultancies.

Flyvbjerg is the most cited scholar in the world on project management. He is the first BT Professor and Inaugural Chair of Major Programme Management at Oxford University and holds the Villum Kann Rasmussen Professorship and Chair at the IT University of Copenhagen. He has received numerous honors and awards for his work on better project management, including a knighthood and two Fulbright Scholarships.

Course Leader

Dr. Alexander Budzier

Dr. Alexander Budzier is the CEO of Oxford Global Projects and a Fellow at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. For more than 15 years, he has worked with the largest and most complex projects in the world to increase their chances of success. His work has spanned all types of projects from infrastructure and capital investments to organizational change.

His research and teaching focus on the question: "How can projects outperform history?"

Alexander’s award-winning research has been published in leading journals, including Harvard Business Review, and has been featured by the Financial Times, Forbes, MIT Technology Review, BBC, and others.

Learn More.

Be in the know with Oxford Global Projects.

Who Is RCF For?

Anyone who wants to get better at forecasting and make better decisions.
Managers; project, program and portfolio managers; planners; and analysts in:
  • Construction and infrastructure
  • Manufacturing, retail, finance
  • Information technology
  • Transportation, energy, water
  • Aerospace, defense
  • Oil and gas, mining
  • Health, education, social services
  • General management
If you're in doubt about relevance to you, please contact the course coordinator at [email protected].

The Iron Law of Project Management.

Our data show:
  • 48% of projects are on budget
  • 8% are on budget AND on time
  • 0.5% are on budget AND on time AND on benefits
That's the Iron Law: Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.
RCF lets you defy the Iron Law, based on Nobel Prize-winning theory and methodology.

Benefits of the RCF Essentials Course.

  • Learn from world-leading RCF pioneers: Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and their team

  • De-bias your projects with Nobel Prize-winning theory

  • Practice the three steps of RCF

  • Get hands-on experience with real data

  • Understand exactly why RCF is the most accurate forecasting method that exists

  • Accelerate your career by mastering the theory, methodology, and practice of RCF

What Does the RCF Essentials Course Include?

Ask us about the new self-paced courses.

  • On-demand training videos and a variety of learning materials on the whys and hows of RCF, plus real-world case studies

  • Community-learning environment: network with instructors and peers for the duration of the course

  • Access to all learning resources with course videos, articles, training exercises, and the platform for 6 months after the course

  • Individual assignment with expert feedback and detailed RCF methodology walk-through

  • More than 30 hours of learning activities and materials that cater to different learning styles

Benefits of the Certified RCF Practitioner Course.

All the benefits and content of the RCF Essentials course, plus:

  • Understand advanced aspects of RCF, including inflation, Black Swans, dealing with unique projects, and unknown unknowns

  • Learn by doing: complete an RCF from scratch with expert support, for your own project

  • Receive private, 1-1 guidance from expert instructors

  • Become a certified reference class forecaster and wield this skillset at work to avoid project overruns and benefit shortfalls

  • Written certification that you have been taught RCF at the same high level as our students at Oxford University

What Does the Certified RCF Practitioner Course Include?

The Certified RCF Practitioner course builds on the RCF Essentials course.

  • 2 private sessions with our experts to guide your learning-by-doing

  • A 1.5-hour live workshop with OGP experts

  • On-demand videos and writings, including case studies on how to do RCF in any sector and geography

  • Access to all course resources for 6 months after the course

  • More than 40 hours of learning materials and activities that cater to a variety of learning styles

RCF Is Nobel Prize-Winner Endorsed

Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman praises RCF as "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting."

- D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2011, p. 251

Daniel Kahneman, Thi

Want to start today?

Learn on your own schedule with our newest course, RCF Foundations.

For more information about the courses, email the course coordinator at [email protected].

Trusted by Leaders of Industry.

ABN Amro
Deutsche Bank

About Oxford Global Projects.

Oxford Global Projects is a project management consultancy founded by leading experts Professor Bent Flyvbjerg and Dr. Alexander Budzier. Our consulting services include benchmarking, reference class forecasting, early warning systems, project turnaround, masterbuilder leadership, Black Swan management, and project leadership academies. These RCF courses are not affiliated with the University of Oxford. More here:

Stay in Touch.

Be in the know with Oxford Global Projects.