Reference Class Forecasting Cohort Courses

Learn the most accurate forecasting method that exists: Reference Class Forecasting (RCF). Learn how to de-risk project cost, schedule, and benefits. Apply Nobel Prize-winning theory. Create your own reference class forecasts.

  • 1. RCF Essentials

    Learn how to do RCF
    Master RCF theory and methodology
    Explore RCF case studies
    Apply RCF to real data
    Meet the world leaders of RCF
    4 weeks, 30 hours
  • 2. Certified RCF Practitioner

    Includes RCF Essentials course
    Learn advanced aspects of RCF
    Execute your own RCF with expert guidance
    Understand Black Swans, uniqueness bias, and unknown unknowns
    Earn RCF certification
    10 weeks, 70 hours (30 of which are on the RCF Essentials course)

The Essentials and Certified RCF Practitioner courses build on the most popular curriculum we teach at the University of Oxford. We adapted this especially with practitioners in mind, with the same basics but with more practical details, more cases, more examples, more time, and more guidance on how to master RCF in practice.

Select Your Cohort.

For practitioners. For projects. Skills that work.

*After completing the RCF Essentials course, you will be eligible for a certification course. If you book the Certified RCF Practitioner course now (which includes the Essentials course) you save, compared with booking the two courses separately. We recommend this, if you know you want certification.

Want to start today?

Learn on your schedule with our newest course, RCF Foundations.

World-Class Expertise.

Your course is led by the leading scholars in the field.

Course Leader

Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg

Professor Bent Flyvbjerg is the Executive Chairman of Oxford Global Projects. He has 30+ years of experience as an advisor to government and business, including the US, UK, and Chinese governments, Fortune 500 companies, and top consultancies. He has received numerous honors and awards for his work on better project management, including a knighthood and two Fulbright Scholarships.

Flyvbjerg is the most cited scholar in the world on project management and the first BT Professor and inaugural Chair of Major Programme Management at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School. His research has been covered by Science, Harvard Business Review, The Economist, the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and other media.

Course Leader

Dr. Alexander Budzier

Dr. Alexander Budzier is the CEO of Oxford Global Projects and a Fellow at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. For more than 15 years, he has worked with the largest and most complex projects in the world to increase their chances of success. His work has spanned all types of projects from infrastructure and capital investments to organizational change. Alexander’s award-winning research has been published in leading journals, including Harvard Business Review, and has been featured by the Financial Times, Forbes, MIT Technology Review, BBC, and others.

Learn More.

Be in the know with Oxford Global Projects.

Who Is This Course For?

Anyone who wants to get better at forecasting and make better decisions.
Managers; project, program and portfolio managers; planners; and analysts in:
  • Construction and infrastructure
  • Manufacturing, retail, finance
  • Information technology
  • Transportation, energy, water
  • Aerospace, defense
  • Oil and gas, mining
  • Health, education, social services
  • General management
If you're in doubt about relevance to you, please contact the course coordinator at

The Iron Law of Project Management.

Our data show:
  • 48% of projects are on budget
  • 8% are on budget AND on time
  • 0.5% are on budget AND on time AND on benefits
That's the Iron Law: Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.
RCF lets you defy the Iron Law, based on Nobel Prize-winning theory and methodology.

Benefits of the RCF Essentials Course.

  • Learn from world-leading RCF pioneers: Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and their team

  • De-bias your projects with Nobel Prize-winning theory

  • Practice the three steps of RCF

  • Get hands-on experience with real data

  • Understand exactly why RCF is the most accurate forecasting method that exists

  • Accelerate your career by mastering the theory, methodology, and practice of RCF

What Does the RCF Essentials Course Include?

The next cohort launches 17 November 2021.

  • Two 1.5-hour workshops with lead instructors Professor Bent Flyvbjerg and Dr. Alexander Budzier, 23 November and 9 December at 2pm GMT

  • On-demand training videos and a variety of learning materials on the whys and hows of RCF, plus real-world case studies

  • Community-learning environment: network with instructors and peers for the duration of the course

  • Access to all learning resources with course videos, articles, training exercises, and the platform for 6 months after the course

  • Individual assignment with expert feedback and detailed RCF methodology walk-through

  • More than 30 hours of learning activities and materials that cater to different learning styles

Benefits of the Certified RCF Practitioner Course.

All the benefits of the RCF Essentials course, plus:

  • Understand advanced aspects of RCF, including inflation, Black Swans, dealing with unique projects, and unknown unknowns

  • Learn by doing: complete an RCF from scratch with expert support, for your own project

  • Receive private, 1-1 guidance from expert instructors

  • Become a certified reference class forecaster and wield this skillset at work to avoid project overruns and benefit shortfalls

  • Written certification that you have been taught RCF at the same high level as our students at Oxford University

What Does the Certified RCF Practitioner Course Include?

The Certified RCF Practitioner course builds on the RCF Essentials course. The next cohort launches 15 December 2021.

  • 2 private sessions with our experts to guide your learning-by-doing

  • A 1.5-hour live workshop with lead instructors Professor Bent Flyvbjerg and Dr. Alexander Budzier, 20 January at 2pm GMT

  • On-demand videos and writings, including case studies on how to do RCF in any sector and geography

  • Access to all course resources for 6 months after the course

  • More than 40 hours of learning materials and activities that cater to a variety of learning styles

RCF Is Nobel Prize-Winner Endorsed

Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman praises RCF as "the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy in forecasting."

- D. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2011, p. 251

Daniel Kahneman, Thi

Select Your Course.

Based on Nobel Prize-winning theory. Designed for you.

Want to start today?

Learn on your schedule with our newest course, RCF Foundations.

For more information about the courses, email the course coordinator at

Trusted by Leaders of Industry.

ABN Amro
Deutsche Bank

About Oxford Global Projects.

Oxford Global Projects is a project management consultancy founded by leading experts Professor Bent Flyvbjerg and Dr. Alexander Budzier. Our consulting services include benchmarking, reference class forecasting, early warning systems, project turnaround, masterbuilder leadership, Black Swan management, and project leadership academies. These RCF courses are not affiliated with the University of Oxford. More here:

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Be in the know with Oxford Global Projects.